'GREED'
(Greater Returns Each & Every Day) rear its ugly head. I've dealt
with tens of thousands of clients and prospective clients over
the years, and still the most common question I'm asked is, "What
is the highest performing fund?" - because of the importance of
the mutual
fund performance.
In most cases, the top performing mutual funds for the year were
invested in some new technology or industry that caused the fund
to do exceptionally well. One example of such a mutual fund was
the Essex High Technology Fund, which returned 1155.92% for three
years; however, at the time of writing this article, that fund
was in the negatives. That might be acceptable if you had have
invested in the fund over the last four years, made a great return
and only lost 10-15% of it, but it might be a bit less easy to
swallow if you had invested in the fund purely based on the 1155.92%
past return, and then lost 10-15% of your investment.
The point that I am trying to make is that although it is important to know how the mutual fund has performed in the past, it is equally - if not more - important not to base your investment decision on the mutual fund's past performance alone. Think of a mutual fund as a wave where you could invest just as the wave was starting to form and ride it all the way or get on at the top of the wave and ride it all the way down, or get it when it crashes on the shore and is on its way back. For my money, I would rather get the wave when it's forming and ride until it peaks.
The best way I have found to analyze the mutual fund performance is to take note of the fund's past performance, but also monitor the year to date of the fund for three to six months before investing. In doing so, an idea of how the mutual fund is performing should develop: it's like watching that wave starting to build and picking the appropriate time for entry for the best possible return on your money.
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